Every strategy starts with a set of problems to be solved. The strategy is a set of solutions to those problems. The logic tree branches out as a decomposition of a problem.
The output of a logic tree is a diagram, use techniques like the five whys and for each answer create a MECE list.
A hypothesis is a starting point for an investigation. When one hypothesize, one makes a claim about why something might be the case, based on limited data. i.e. to offer up an explanation or a path forward. This puts a stake in the ground, a marker, for future work.
Start by asking the following five questions:
When it is time to perform analysis, define the problem as a set of propositions, each proposition is connected by the conjunct, the logical operator AND).
Now you create an interpretation of each proposition based on the discourse. This falls in to a matter of language e.g. play means something to a child than it does a theatre goer. Define common understand, challenge what language might be unclear, ask how biases might be entering your work. keep a glossary of terms if necessary. Keep language clear, precise and accurate.
Determining the possible outcomes of a decision or action is an act of imagination and reasoning. Write down possible outcomes as a MECE list. Watch out for inductive reasoning - find facts. Start by defining your terms ans looking at data you have.
There is no need to be super-specific, using language like 45.58% will give a false sense of precision and therefore expectation. Something like the moving sales online could increase revenues between 40-60%.
Don’t make assumptions too quickly. unfamiliar doesn’t mean improbable.
Assigning outcomes with values in order to prioritise them. using a 2-by-2 grid of Ease of execution vs impact and score then plot your outcomes accordingly.
We can then use the Pareto principle and differentiate signal and noise. Nate Silver wrote a book about this and suggested in a game of poker you can make the same decisions as a pro 80% of the time by learning the hands, learn the rough idea of the odds, fold your worst hands and make a modest effort to consider your opponents cards and this can be done in 20% of the time.
This might also be covered by the notion that perfect is the enemy of good - and good enough will probably do.